In just one year, GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy have done what decades of food marketing and health trends could not: cause millions of people to radically change their eating habits.

This shift is already hitting balance sheets. In Australia, 1 in 9 adults are on Ozempic, and grocery spend among users is down 31%. In the U.S., households with one GLP-1 user are spending 8–10% less on food, according to a Cornell study — that’s $600–800 less per year, per household.

Some companies across the food and ag value chain are still taking a “wait and see” approach. Others are treating this as a structural transformation — one that could redraw entire categories and pull margin out of the sector altogether.

This time is different

GLP-1s are not just another diet fad, ingredient trend, or plant-based rebrand. And they’re not “education problems” that better marketing can fix.

Consumers taking these drugs experience real, lasting changes in digestion, appetite, and cravings — possibly even for things like alcohol. These shifts are biological, not behavioral, and they persist as long as the drug is in use.

As food system expert Mary Shelman put it on our latest AgTech...So What? episode:

“Big losers are sweets, desserts, snacks — and down 10–15% are frozen foods and packaged meals. On the winning side, it’s functional snacks — meat sticks, nutrition bars, anything with enhanced protein.”

She also cited a 10% drop in fast food spending and a 5% decline at convenience stores. These aren’t minor wobbles. They’re category-wide shocks with implications for the entire food and agri-food value chain.

Whose margin are GLP-1s eating?

The financial impact of GLP-1s goes beyond shifting preferences within the food system. This is pharma taking margin from food.

The money consumers save by eating less isn’t being banked — it’s being reallocated to $1,000-per-month prescriptions. What we’re seeing is a classic case of ecosystem disruption (for the Ron Adner fans out there): not just changes within a sector, but across industries. 

Consumers aren’t just buying different products — they’re buying from entirely different industries.

If you're a food or ag exec, this isn’t just a trend to monitor. It’s a fight you’re already in — whether you’ve stepped into the ring or not.

Signals from the Frontlines: Where GLP-1 Impacts Are Already Being Felt

Some companies are already moving to capture the opportunities created by GLP-1s — especially in categories where consumer needs are changing fast.

Protein is a clear winner. With GLP-1s suppressing appetite, users are being advised to prioritize protein intake and build strength to avoid muscle loss. That guidance is accelerating an already strong trend — and could drive a global protein demand even higher. 

For example, we’re seeing early momentum in products like high-protein yogurts, milk, meat sticks, and nutrition bars. But the implications go further: chickpeas, spinach, eggs, meat — nearly all protein sources could benefit. Companies already positioned in these categories are scaling. Others are racing to adjust before demand leaves them behind.

At the same time, GLP-1s are blurring the lines between industries — food, fitness, and healthcare are converging into a “functional bundle” of services aimed at helping users get the most from the drugs. As Mary Shelman noted on the podcast, there’s now a viable business case for combining:

• Protein-rich foods or personalized nutrition
• Strength-focused fitness programs
• Medical guidance and health tracking

Who delivers this bundle — and who captures the value — is still up for grabs. It could be a grocer, a gym, a health insurer, or a tech-enabled startup. Each is watching their existing revenue streams shift and looking for ways to stay essential in this new landscape.

Midstream players: you’re not immune

While much of the early attention has focused on consumers and retailers, midstream companies are not immune. Yet many are still unprepared. Here are some shifts we’ll be watching:

If you deal in processed ingredients…
What happens if demand for refined sugars, seed oils, or ultra-processed starches keeps declining? Are you set up to pivot to other products or customers? Are you communicating early signals back upstream?

If you’re in cold chain, logistics, or packaging…
Are your systems ready for more high-protein perishables and fewer single-serve frozen meals? What investments are needed to meet demand for fresh dairy, meat, and produce?

If you support crop production…
How could downstream demand shifts impact crop economics? For example, if demand for soybean oil drops, what happens to the economics of the whole crop — including feed and protein fractions?

While the impacts of GLP-1s may be clearest downstream for now, we expect these trends to work their way upstream — slowly, unevenly, but inevitably — to the farmgate.

Margins are moving, are you?

GLP-1s continue to shock the system by permanently altering consumer behavior at scale, reshuffling category economics, and redefining who profits in food and ag.

It’s early and uncertain, but if you're working anywhere along the value chain, now is the time to ask:

• What signals am I missing?
• Where am I exposed?
• What opportunities might I be best placed to seize?

We’ll continue tracking these trends and thinking about what they mean for startups, corporates, and investors alike. If you’re seeing something interesting — or trying to make sense of it — we’d love to hear what’s on your mind.

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